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Overview

Course Prescription

Probability, conditional probability, Bayes theorem, random walks, Markov chains, probability models. Illustrations will be drawn from a wide variety of applications including: finance and economics; biology; telecommunications, networks; games, gambling and risk.

Course Overview

The course concentrates on probability models and their applications in a variety of fields. Probability underpins both statistics and (stochastic) operations research. As such, this is a core course for students in the Statistics and Probability pathway or a Data Science Specialisation, and optional for those pursuing the Applied Statistics pathway or a Statistics major.  Probability models are also used in disciplines as varied as Commerce and Biology (e.g., calculating the probability that a share price will exceed a certain level or the probability that a population will become extinct). This means the course is useful for students with varied interests, as well as those who have Maths or Statistics as their main interest. STATS 125 is a prerequisite for STATS 210. Students with a weak mathematics background will need to pass MATHS 102 before taking STATS 125 and MATHS 108.

The course covers four broad areas (roughly one quarter each): Probability, Discrete distributions, Joint and conditional distributions, and Markov chains. Illustrations will be drawn from a wide variety of applications including finance and economics, genetics, bioinformatics and other areas of biology, telecommunication networks, games, gambling and risk, and forensic science.

Key Topics

  • Probability
  • Conditional probability
  • Bayes' theorem
  • Discrete distributions
  • Expectation and variance
  • Joint and conditional discrete distributions
  • Definition and examples of Markov chains
  • Random walks
  • Hitting probabilities and times
  • Equilibrium distributions

Workload Expectations

This course is a standard 15-point course and students are expected to spend 150 hours per semester involved in each 15-point course that they are enrolled in.

For this course, a typical weekly workload includes:

  • 3 hours of lectures
  • A 1-hour tutorial
  • 3 hours of reading and thinking about the content
  • 5-6 hours of work on assignments and/or test/exam preparation

Course Prerequisites, Corequisites and Restrictions

Corequisite
Restriction

Locations and Semesters Offered

LocationSemester
City
City

Teaching and Learning

Campus Experience

Attendance is expected at scheduled  tutorials to complete components of the course.

Lectures will be available as recordings. Other learning activities including tutorials will not be available as recordings.
Attendance on campus is required for the test and exam. 

The activities for the course are scheduled as a standard weekly timetable.

Learning Resources

Taught courses use a learning and collaboration tool called Canvas to provide students with learning materials including reading lists and lecture recordings (where available). Please remember that the recording of any class on a personal device requires the permission of the instructor.

Additional Information on Learning Resources

Coursebook:

  • The coursebook contains all the notes and most examples covered in class.
  • A Pdf copy is available on Canvas.
  • A Pdf copy of additional practice exercises for each chapter are also available on Canvas.
Equipment:
  • It is assumed that students have access to a scientific (or graphics) calculator.

Copyright

The content and delivery of content in this course are protected by copyright. Material belonging to others may have been used in this course and copied by and solely for the educational purposes of the University under license.


You may copy the course content for the purposes of private study or research, but you may not upload onto any third-party site, make a further copy or sell, alter or further reproduce or distribute any part of the course content to another person.

Learning Continuity

In the event of an unexpected disruption, we undertake to maintain the continuity and standard of teaching and learning in all your courses throughout the year. If there are unexpected disruptions the University has contingency plans to ensure that access to your course continues and course assessment continues to meet the principles of the University’s assessment policy. Some adjustments may need to be made in emergencies. You will be kept fully informed by your course co-ordinator/director, and if disruption occurs you should refer to the university website for information about how to proceed.

Academic Integrity

The University of Auckland will not tolerate cheating, or assisting others to cheat, and views cheating in coursework as a serious academic offence. The work that a student submits for grading must be the student's own work, reflecting their learning. Where work from other sources is used, it must be properly acknowledged and referenced. This requirement also applies to sources on the internet. A student's assessed work may be reviewed for potential plagiarism or other forms of academic misconduct, using computerised detection mechanisms.

Similarly, research students must meet the University’s expectations of good research practice. This requires:

  • Honesty - in all aspects of research work
  • Accountability - in the conduct of research
  • Professional courtesy and fairness – in working with others
  • Good stewardship – on behalf of others
  • Transparency – of research process and presentation of results
  • Clarity - communication to be understandable, explainable and accessible

For more information on the University’s expectations of academic integrity, please see the Academic Conduct section of the University policy hub.

Disclaimer

Elements of this outline may be subject to change. The latest information about taught courses is made available to enrolled students in Canvas.

Students may be asked to submit assessments digitally. The University reserves the right to conduct scheduled tests and examinations online or through the use of computers or other electronic devices. Where tests or examinations are conducted online remote invigilation arrangements may be used. In exceptional circumstances changes to elements of this course may be necessary at short notice. Students enrolled in this course will be informed of any such changes and the reasons for them, as soon as possible, through Canvas.


Assessment and Learning Outcomes

Additional Information on Assessment

A minimum of 45% is required in the exam to pass, in addition to a minimum of 50% in your overall mark.

Special Requirements

The mid-semester  test will be held in the evening. The date and time will be advised on Canvas at the beginning of the semester.

Course Learning Outcomes

CLO #OutcomeProgramme Capability Link
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

Assessments

Assessment TypeAssessment PercentageAssessment Classification

Assessment to CLO Mapping

Assessment Type1234567

Student Feedback, Support and Charter

Student Feedback

Feedback on taught courses is gathered from students at the end of each semester through a tool called SET or Qualtrics. The lecturers and course co-ordinators will consider all feedback and respond with summaries and actions. Your feedback helps teachers to improve the course and its delivery for future students. In addition, class Representatives in each class can take feedback to the department and faculty staff-student consultative committees.

Additional Information on Student Feedback

There will be ongoing review of tutorial content and delivery.

Class representatives

Class representatives are students tasked with representing student issues to departments, faculties, and the wider university. If you have a complaint about this course, please contact your class rep who will know how to raise it in the right channels. See your departmental noticeboard for contact details for your class reps.

Tuākana

Tuākana is a multi-faceted programme for Māori and Pacific students providing topic specific tutorials, one-on-one sessions, test and exam preparation and more. Explore your options at Tuakana Learning Communities.

Additional Information on Tuākana

Tuākana Statistics is the Māori and Pasifika community of learning in the Department of Statistics. We offer the following support to our Māori and Pasifika students: drop-in sessions for coursework assistance, and study wānanga for the test and exam. For more information, contact Susan Wingfield (s.wingfield@auckland.ac.nz).

Inclusive Learning

All students are asked to discuss any impairment related requirements privately, face to face and/or in written form with the course coordinator, lecturer or tutor.

Student Disability Services also provides support for students with a wide range of impairments, both visible and invisible, to succeed and excel at the University. For more information and contact details, please visit the Student Disability Services’ website.

Wellbeing

We all go through tough times during the semester, or see our friends struggling. There is lots of help out there - please see the Support Services page for information on support services in the University and the wider community.

Special Circumstances

If your ability to complete assessed work is affected by illness or other personal circumstances outside of your control, contact a member of teaching staff as soon as possible before the assessment is due. If your personal circumstances significantly affect your performance, or preparation, for an exam or eligible written test, refer to the University’s aegrotat or compassionate consideration page. This should be done as soon as possible and no later than seven days after the affected test or exam date.

Student Charter and Responsibilities

The Student Charter assumes and acknowledges that students are active participants in the learning process and that they have responsibilities to the institution and the international community of scholars. The University expects that students will act at all times in a way that demonstrates respect for the rights of other students and staff so that the learning environment is both safe and productive. For further information visit Student Charter.

Student Academic Complaints and Disputes

Students with concerns about teaching including how a course is delivered, the resources provided, or supervision arrangements, have the right to express their concerns and seek resolution. The university encourages informal resolution where possible, as this is quicker and less stressful. For information on the informal and formal complaints processes, please refer to the Student Academic Complaints Statute in the Student Policies and Guidelines section of the Policy Hub.